The World in 2021
Read in ItalianThe World in 2021
Read in ItalianIn 2020, many of our forecasts and expectations were disrupted by a “Black swan” only few could expect: a global pandemic that rapidly turned into the deepest economic recession since World War 2. This year wraps up with few certainties and many questions: our annual dossier “The World in 2021” sets out to answer ten of them.
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The pandemic divide
Covid-19 Vaccine: The 2021 Diplomatic Currency?
The impact of vaccines exceeds their capacity to prevent global infectious diseases and promote public health. Vaccines are also powerful instruments of foreign policy and influence. Which nations are set to gain in times of pandemic?
By Peter Hotez, Dean, National School of Tropical Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine
The Post-Covid Economy: A Two-Speed Recovery?
Not only did the Covid-related economic crisis hit advanced countries harder, but the recovery is likely to be stronger in emerging Asian countries than in the Eurozone or the United States. How will this affect the global economy on the long term?
By Jean-Paul Fitoussi and Francesco Saraceno, Sciences Po & LUISS
RISING INEQUALITY, RISING INSTABILITY?
RISING INEQUALITY, RISING INSTABILITY?
Europe and the crisis: democracy vs inequality
Will rising post-Covid inequality trigger a new wave of protests, social radicalisation and political instability in Europe?
By Alberto Martinelli, Professor Emeritus, University of Milan and ISPI Senior Advisor
MENA Region: Spring is yet to come
In the Middle East and North Africa, Covid-19 has amplified preexisting inequalities and deepened long festering grievances. Have governments taken those concerns seriously enough?
By Maha Yahya, Director, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Europe and the crisis: democracy vs inequality
Will rising post-Covid inequality trigger a new wave of protests, social radicalisation and political instability in Europe?
By Alberto Martinelli, Professor Emeritus, University of Milan and ISPI Senior Advisor
MENA Region: Spring is yet to come
In the Middle East and North Africa, Covid-19 has amplified preexisting inequalities and deepened long festering grievances. Have governments taken those concerns seriously enough?
By Maha Yahya, Director, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
What surprises does an indebted world bear?
The pandemic triggered the worst economic and financial crisis ever: at the end of 2020, the world is in an extremely and dangerously indebted position. What should be done?
By Jean-Claude Trichet, President 2003-2011, European Central Bank
Migrations: ready for a new wave?
The global economic recession may spark new forms of migration and changing routes, even as it constrains other movement. Is Europe geared up for dealing with a new wave of migrants?
By Hanne Beirens, Director, Migration Policy Institute
A post-pandemic world
Whither Turkey’s Ambitions?
Turkey may be facing a “1945 moment”. It is geopolitically stronger, capable of projecting military power in its neighborhood but also very lonely. In 2021, consequential decisions will have to be made on the country’s strategic identity.
By Soli Özel, Professor, Kadir Has University and Senior Fellow, Institut Montaigne
Europe: learning to walk on its own feet?
From the economic recovery to Brexit, Europe will kick off 2021 with a range of old and new challenges in its in-tray. But has the pandemic shown that the Old Continent is learning stand on its own two feet?
By Antonio Villafranca, Director of Studies, ISPI
Climate: Saved by the Pandemic?
How societies react to the pandemic can enhance or erode prospects of reaching the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement. Can new investments foster economy recovery, create jobs and also contribute to climate protection?
By Camilla Bausch, Director, Ecologic Institute
America and the world: getting the band back together?
Joe Biden said that one of his first tasks as a US President would be to let allies know that “America is back.” Of all the differences between his and Trump’s approach to foreign policy, alliance relations will represent one of the most dramatic.
By Richard Fontaine, Chief Executive Officer, Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
US-China tensions: time out?
While Trump and Xi trade charges and counter-charges tariffs in the seemingly never-ending trade dispute between the United States and China, it is a mistake to view the trade dispute as simply a spat between the two.
By Michael Pettis, Professor, Peking University and Senior Associate, Carnegie Tsinghua Center
To Watch 2021
DEAL TO WATCH
JCPOA
Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the “Iran deal” has led to the agreement’s progressive erosion and to renewed concerns about the Iranian nuclear programme. Will Biden’s administration reverse this trend?
By Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, Senior Research Fellow, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
COUNTRY TO WATCH
GERMANY
The long era of Angela Merkel’s chancellorship will draw to an end in 2021, leaving a series of major question marks, some of which hang over not only Germany’s destiny, but also that of Europe.
By Tonia Mastrobuoni, Berlin Correspondent, La Repubblica
Summit to watch
The Italian G20
What are the main variables on which the success of Italy’s presidency of the G20 in 2021 depends?
By Giampiero Massolo, President, ISPI
LEADER TO WATCH
Abiy Ahmed
The Ethiopian PM received the 2019 Nobel Prize for his peace agreement with Eritrea, breaking nearly 20 years of stalemate. After the Tigray conflict erupted last November many observers asked: “He got the Nobel Peace Prize, but starts a war the next year: why”?
By Jon Abbink, Professor, African Studies Centre Leiden University
HOTSPOT TO WATCH
TAIWAN
Joe Biden’s incoming US administration is very likely to continue to show strong backing for the Taipei government. That is sure to keep blood boiling in Beijing.
By Michael Schuman, author, “Superpower Interrupted: The Chinese History of the World”
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